2017 ETF Timing Returns through 11/30/17; Basic Strategy +11.28%, Enhanced and Bull/Bear Strategies +12.64%

Performance

Over the time period tested (since January 2004), the ETF Timing strategies have consistently provided outstanding returns.  There are no annual subscription fees, and the one-time purchase fee is less than what most services charge in a single year.  There is no hand-holding necessary, you are in full control of your investments, as you should be.  Just choose the strategy you want to use, or perhaps just follow along for a while until you gain enough confidence to use it with a portion or all of your portfolio.

ETF Timing’s strategies beat all the recommended buy-and-hold ETF and mutual fund portfolio’s of well-known “retirement mentor” featured on CBS MarketWatch, Paul Merriman.  As definitive proof that the system is continuing to work, below are links to a third-party tracking service (TimerTrac.com) which show real-time (delayed by two weeks) recent returns of the three ETF Timing strategies.  The ETF Timing Basic and Enhanced strategies follow the TSP Timing strategies precisely, while the Bull/Bear system adds the ability to “short” the S&P 500 during major bear markets, and thus has produced returns significantly better than even what TSP participants can achieve using these strategies.  Note that these graphs track the Vanguard version of the strategies.

Basic Strategy Recent Returns:

Enhanced Strategy Recent Returns:

Bull/Bear Strategy Recent Returns (Note: this strategy will match the Enhanced returns until there is a bear market signal):

This chart depicts how various strategies performed over the 13-year period beginning December 31, 2003.   The top three lines are the ETF Timing strategies.

Below is an image taken from the ETF Timing Data spreadsheet (as of December 31, 2016) showing the annual and compound returns through of all the strategies that are tracked.  The image below shows the annual returns of three buy-and-hold strategies, a “Sell in May and Go Away” strategy, and the three ETF Timing strategies for one of the three brokers that are tracked.  The spreadsheet includes all data needed to compare returns using the ideal ETFs to use with three brokers:

  • TD Ameritrade
  • Vanguard
  • Charles Schwab

Which broker and ETFs produce the best returns?  That is revealed in the spreadsheet, and the answer may surprise you.  For 2016, the full year returns for the ETF IVV versus the ETF Timing strategies with the broker that has given the best returns since 2003 (not shown in the image below) were:

  • S&P 500 (using IVV):  +12.16%
  • ETF Timing Basic strategy:  +24.81%
  • ETF Timing Enhanced strategy:  +24.30%
  • ETF Timing Bull/Bear strategy:  +24.30%

 

Another key feature of the ETF Timing strategies is that all of the strategies spend a considerable amount of time in cash or the relatively low-risk and stable bond index ETF’s AGG or BND or SCHZ.  Specifically:

  • The Basic strategy only has eight trades per year, and spends about 66% of the time in stocks, and 34% of the time in bonds or cash.  Therefore the Basic strategy is effectively equivalent to a buy-and-hold balanced portfolio consisting of 66% stocks, and 34% bonds/cash, and yet produces returns far exceeding those of a balance buy-and-hold or even an all-stock portfolio!  How is this possible?  It’s possible due to the timing strategies that avoid the most volatile times of the year for stocks.  The system uncannily avoids most of the big stock market panic plunges that most frequently occur in the summer and fall months, for example.
  • The Enhanced strategy (and the Bull/Bear strategy, except when it is on a bear market signal) requires just 12 to 14 trades per year, and is in stocks for approximately 60% to 72% of each year.  Even with that reduced exposure to stocks, the Enhanced strategy has blown away the returns of the benchmark S&P 500, achieving almost three times the annual return of the benchmark which most pros can’t beat consistently!
  • The Bull/Bear strategy adds one additional enhancement to the Enhanced strategy; the ability to “short” the S&P 500 by using the ETF “SH” while the system is on a bear market signal.  While there can be no guarantee this system will work as well during the next bear market, during the first two bear markets of the 21st century it has avoided losses of about 40% in both cases, plus by shorting the market while on a bear market signal returns can mushroom.  Note the 98% return in the year 2008.

Considering the above, how could you not at least give this a try with a portion of your portfolio?

If you’re ready, head to the Purchase page to make your purchase, but first check out the How It Works page, then Products page for details on what you will get.